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UK COVID-19 lockdown changes: How R is changing


We should be watching the R value from Monday 15 June.

There is concern over rises in the Reproductive Number "R" once some lockdown restrictions are lifted, particularly the most vulnerable people in care homes may be impacted.

However, according to one simple model there is some comfort, in that R may not need to be below 1.0 in order for infections to decline, we may have some scope to allow it to rise another 10% -due to the "herd immunity" effect.

Here, we Use a simple Excel based method* to match two sets of data:

  1. Hospital deaths excluding those of care home residents

  2. Care home resident’s deaths (occurring in care home as well as hospital etc)

Also, from end May onwards, prediction of infections per day, number of people who are infectious and deaths.